The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says the east coast gas supply outlook has worsened for 2025 and 2026, raising the prospect of shortfalls next year even after a period of easing prices.
The regulator’s June interim report, released on Monday, warns there could be a gap between domestic supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and “throughout 2026 if Queensland LNG producers export all uncontracted gas”. Its modelling now points to anywhere between a 2 petajoule shortfall and an 11 PJ surplus in Q4 2025, depending on producer behaviour and other factors.
Queensland’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporters are central to the picture. The ACCC notes those producers hold most of the state’s reserves and resources and are the only parties with discretion over whether uncontracted volumes – the so‑called “swing gas” – are sold into the domestic market or loaded onto ships for export. The report says refilling gas storage over the lower‑demand summer months will be essential to meeting southern states’ needs, particularly for winter 2026.
“Gas prices eased over the past 6 months, reflecting movements in international prices and an increase in market activity following implementation of the Gas Code,” ACCC Commissioner Anna Brakey said.
“However, prices continue to be higher than pre-2022 levels. Concerningly, supply into the domestic market has fallen since that time and gas is increasingly being sold on a short-term basis, posing challenges for gas users who need longer-term certainty for their businesses.”
“The LNG exporters are the only producers with discretion to either export their uncontracted gas, or supply it into the domestic market, so understanding what can affect this ‘swing gas’ and the decisions they could make about gas will be necessary for consideration of options to manage shortfall risks and for effective policy responses,” Ms Brakey said.
The ACCC’s data show prices offered by producers for 2025 supply averaged $13.34 per gigajoule between June and December 2024 — a decline of about 10 per cent from the prior six months. Retailer offers to commercial and industrial customers averaged $14.34/GJ over the same period, down about seven per cent. Offers for 2026 supply also fell by roughly seven per cent for both producers and retailers. Despite that easing, the ACCC emphasised market activity was lower in the second half of 2024 and long‑term contracting remained below pre‑2022 levels.
While the commission says there are sufficient reserves and resources on the east coast to meet projected domestic demand for at least the next decade, much of that gas remains undeveloped. The report points to “policy, technical and commercial factors” that have constrained new investment and urges governments and industry to tackle long‑standing impediments so a broader range of suppliers can bring supply online.
“Gas policy in recent years has largely been directed towards the LNG producers to ensure that their uncontracted gas is available in the short term to avert domestic shortfalls,” Ms Brakey added. “For long-term energy security and affordability, however, it is critical to address underlying barriers to more efficient investment in domestic supply.”
The ACCC’s report also provides preliminary observations on how the east coast market has responded to regulatory changes implemented since 2022–23, and includes producer‑level supply outlooks for Queensland LNG facilities. Ms Brakey said the findings would inform stakeholders and feed into the upcoming Government Gas Market Review.
“The information in the June report will enable stakeholders to make more informed decisions in response to the most recent forecasts of the east coast’s supply-demand balance,” she said. “The report also provides a robust evidence base to support informed engagement by the market, government and the public on policy decisions and regulation, including in respect of the upcoming Government Gas Market Review in the context of continuing concerns about the adequacy of gas production and the efficiency of the east coast gas market.”
The ACCC was directed to run a broad gas market inquiry from 2017 and its mandate was extended to 2030 in 2022. Its next interim update is scheduled for September 2025. The commission’s analysis draws on data from gas producers and AEMO’s 2025 Gas Statement of Opportunities domestic demand forecast (Step Change scenario).
